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ESAM02
Program
Conference Program
 
Registration (Sunday 7 July 3pm - 6pm)
B114, B-Block, Gardens Point Campus
 
Cocktail Reception (Sunday 7 July 6pm - 8pm)
Owen J Wordsworth Rooms, Level 12, S- Block
 
Opening Address (Monday 8 July 8.45am - 9am)
 
E.J. Hannan Lecture:
Normalization in Econometrics
James Hamilton (Monday 8 July 9am - 10.30am)
sponsored by Queensland Investment Corporation
     
Parallel Session 1 (Monday 8 July 11am - 12.30pm)
Econometric theory 1 --- Parallel Session 1 (Monday 8 July 11am - 12.30pm)
Room B117 - Chair: David Harris
Anderson Heather Monash Choosing Lag Lengths in Nonlinear Dynamic Models
Bhowmik Jahar Monash Parameter Estimation in Linear Models with a Nonlinear Component Using a Maximal Invariant Likelihood Function
Hirschberg Joseph Melbourne Tests of Inference for Dummy Variables in Regressions with Logarithmic Transformed Dependent Variables
Nankervis John Surrey Stopping Rules for Double Bootstrap confidence intervals
Economic theory 1 --- Parallel Session 1 (Monday 8 July 11am - 12.30pm)
Room B119 - Chair: Stuart McDonald
Basov Suren Melbourne Evolution of Social Behavior in a Global Economy
Callander Steven Northwestern Vote Timing and Information Aggregation
Grant Simon CentER, Tilburg Accidents of birth, life chances and the impartial observer
Quiggin John ANU A Model Free Definition of Increasing Uncertainty
Environmental economics --- Parallel Session 1 (Monday 8 July 11am - 12.30pm)
Room B121 - Chair: Rodney Beard
Cason Timothy Purdue  Market Power in Tradable Emission Markets: A Laboratory Testbed for Emission Trading in Port Phillip Bay, Victoria
Chakravorty Ujjayant Emory  Exhaustible Resource Extraction under Demand Heterogeneity
Culas Richard Sydney The Underlying Causes of Deforestation
Kobayashi Shinji Nihon Dynamic Oligopolistic Exploitation of Renewable Natural Resources and Taxation
Financial market crises and contagion (Invited Session) --- Parallel Session 1 (Monday 8 July 11am - 12.30pm)
Room B122 - Chair: Mardi Dungey
Rigobon Roberto MIT Contagion: how to measure it?
Dungey Mardi ANU International Contagion Effects from the Russian Crisis and the LTCM Near-Collapse
Caporale Guglielmo South Bank University Testing for Contagion: A Conditional Correlation Analysis
Macroeconometrics 1 --- Parallel Session 1 (Monday 8 July 11am - 12.30pm)
Room B124 - Chair: Vlad Pavlov
Gruen David RBA Real-Time Estimates of the Output Gap: Are they Reliable Enough to use for Monetary Policy?
Claus Iris NZ Treasury A small open economy model with and without a credit channel
McHugh Zoe QUT Modelling unemployment in Australia
Reale Marco Canterbury A Causal Diagram for an interest rate transmission mechanism in New
Microeconometrics 1 --- Parallel Session 1 (Monday 8 July 11am - 12.30pm)
Room B450 - Chair: Diane Dancer
Farrell Lisa Melbourne An investigation into the economic motives for child allowances.
Fiebig Denzil UNSW Equity of access to general practitioners in Australia: A reality or an ideal?
Ray Ranjan Tasmania The Determinants of Child labour and Child Schooling in Ghana 
Vaithianathan Rhema ANU Selection and Stunting Effects of Famine: a case study of the great chinese famine
Modelling intellectual property and risk ratings (Invited session) --- Parallel Session 1 (Monday 8 July 11am - 12.30pm)
Room B440 - Chair: Michael McAleer
Slottje Dan  SMU An Econometric Analysis of Copyrights
Chan Felix UWA An EconPatentsometric Analysis of Volatility: Theory and Application to
Hoti Suhejla UWA Structure and Asymptotic Theory for Asymmetric Volatility: Empirical Evidence for Country Risk Ratings 
 
Parallel Session 2 (Monday 8 July 2.00pm - 3.30pm)
Econometric theory 2 --- Parallel Session 2 (Monday 8 July 2.00pm - 3.30pm)
Room B117 - Chair: Heather Anderson
Beare  Brendan  ANU Spurious Regression and Inference with Long Memory Processes
Harris David Melbourne Some limit theory for autocovariances whose order depends on sample size
McCabe Brendan Liverpool Testing for Memory
Rogers Alan Auckland Rapid Convergence of Minimum Lp Norm Estimators under Non-Standard Conditions 
Economic and financial modelling 1 --- Parallel Session 2 (Monday 8 July 2.00pm - 3.30pm)
Room B119 - Chair: Denise Doiron
Fisher Lance UNSW Permanent Income and Transitory Variation in Investment and Output
Bandyopadhyay Debasis Auckland Economic Reforms and Endogenous Movements in TFP
Joyeux Roselyne Macquarie How to Deal with Structural Breaks in practical cointegration analysis?
Williamson Paul Canterbury Mixing Sand
Financial econometrics 1 --- Parallel Session 2 (Monday 8 July 2.00pm - 3.30pm)
Room B121 - Chair: Alica Rambaldi
Kuo  Biing-Shen  National Chengchi University An Explanation of the Forward Premium Puzzle
Pavlov Vlad QUT Missing data and interpolation in dynamic term-structure models
Radalj Kim UWA Systematic risk, speculators and the forward rate puzzle
Yu Jun Auckland A Class of Nonlinear Stochastic Volatility Models
Heavy tails (Invited session) --- Parallel Session 2 (Monday 8 July 2.00pm - 3.30pm)
Room B122 - Chair: Rodney Wolff
Heyde Chris ANU On the arguments over tail heaviness and long range dependence in the modelling of financial time series
Guégan Dominique Ecole Normale Superieure de Cachan A Measure of the Persistence in Stock Markets: How to make predictions in the non Gaussian case
Smith Lenny Pembroke College, Oxford Persistence and Predictability in The Atmosphere and its Models
Wolff Rodney UQ The effect of long memory on bootstrap tests for non-linear structure
Industrial economics 1 --- Parallel Session 2 (Monday 8 July 2.00pm - 3.30pm)
Room B124 - Chair: Andrew Wait
Cooper Russel Western Sydney Network Externalities and the Internet
Gans Joshua Melbourne Markets for Ownership
Wait Andrew Sydney Industry sunk costs and entry dynamics
Zhou Wen Hong Kong University of Science and Technology Second Degree Price Discrimination with Duopoly Competition
Options --- Parallel Session 2 (Monday 8 July 2.00pm - 3.30pm)
Room B450 - Chair: Ralf Becker
Ben-Zion Uri Lancaster  Option Pricing on Pension Insurance
Choe Chongwoo UNSW Leverage, Volatility and Executive Stock Options
Fong Chan Kam UQ A Hedging Strategy for New Zealand’s Exporters in Transaction Exposure to Currency Risk
Werner Megan Florida The Effects of Extreme Design Points on Dichotomous Choice Contingent Valuation Estimates
Income distribution --- Parallel Session 2 (Monday 8 July 2pm - 3.30pm)
Room B440 - Chair: Knox Lovell
Athanasopoulos George Monash  Bootstrapping Australian Income Inequality
Chatterjee Srikanta Massey An Application of Generalised Lorenz Doninace to NZ Incomes Data 1984-98
Cobb-Clark Deborah ANU Differences in Wealth and Asset Holdings Among U.S. and Foreign-Born Households
Inder Brett Monash A threshold model of how the poor benefit from economic growth
 
Invited Lecture on Computer-automated Model Specification:
New Developments in Automatic General-to-specific Modelling
David Hendry (Monday 8 July 4pm - 5.30pm)
 
Econometrics Society - Annual General Meeting
Monday 8 July 5.30pm - 6.30pm, Room B117
 
Parallel Session 3 (Tuesday 9 July 8.30am - 10.00am)
Asset pricing --- Parallel Session 3 (Tuesday 9 July 8.30am - 10.00am)
Room B119 - Chair: Adam Clements
Basu Devraj Warwick  Efficient use of conditioning information: A Sharpe ratio based test for return predictability
Brooks Robert RMIT  The Selectivity Corrected Market Model And Heteroscedasticity In Stock Returns Data
Galagedera Don Monash Conditional relation between higher co-moments and stock return: evidence from Australian data
Woodward George Monash Bull & Bear market logistic smooth transition market models
Econometric analysis of macroeconomic fluctuations (Invited Session) --- Parallel Session 3 (Tuesday 9 July 8.30am - 10.00am)
Room B121 - Chair: Phil Bodman
Harding Don Melbourne Contours of the American business cycle
Henry Olan  Melbourne The Effect of Recessions on the Co-Movement of Output Across a Large and a Small Country: A Study of the United States and Australia
Crosby Mark Melbourne Business Cycle Correlations in Asia-Pacific
Smith Penelope Melbourne On the interactions between growth and volatility in a Markov switching model of GDP
Econometric theory 3 --- Parallel Session 3 (Tuesday 9 July 8.30am - 10.00am)
Room B117 - Chair: Chris Skeels
Hadri Kaddour Liverpool Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data where the time dimension is finite
Choi In Hong Kong Univ. of Science and Technology Testing Linearity in Cointegrating Smooth Transition Regressions
Leybourne Stephen Nottingham Tests for A Change in Persistence Against The Null of Difference-Stationarity 
Rault Christophe Sorbonne A necessary and sufficient condition for weak-exogeneity in vector error correction models
Economic theory 2 --- Parallel Session 3 (Tuesday 9 July 8.30am - 10.00am)
Room B122 - Chair: Simon Grant
Bracoud Frédérique Keele Models of Bertrand Competition in the Deposit and Credit markets under Asymmetric Information
Jamison Julian Northwestern Do Only Women Clean in a Perfect World?
Melatos Mark Sydney Endogenous Trade Bloc Formation With Asymmetric Countries
Tucker Steven Canterbury The Effect of Formal and Informal Sanctions on Cooperation
Microeconometrics 2 --- Parallel Session 3 (Tuesday 9 July 8.30am - 10.00am)
Room B124 - Chair: Denzil Fiebig
Dancer Diane Sydney Factors Influencing Performance in First Year Economics and Econometrics  Courses
Maani Sholeh Auckland Academic Performance and School Leaving Choices at Age Sixteen
Owen Dorian Otago Uncertainty of outcome and Super 12 Rugby Union attendance: Application of a General-to-Specific Modelling Strategy
Shields Michael Melbourne The Value of Reunification in Germany: An Analysis of Changes in Life Satisfaction
Modelling inflation --- Parallel Session 3 (Tuesday 9 July 8.30am - 10.00am)
Room B450 - Chair: Allan Layton
Benati Luca Bank of England Investigating Inflation Dynamics Across Monetary Regimes
Carare Alina IMF Price stability lessons from different inflation targeting regimes
Razzak Weshah RBNZ Monetary policy and forecasting inflation with and without the output gap
Trade and growth 1 --- Parallel Session 3 (Tuesday 9 July 8.30am - 10.00am)
Room B440 - Chair: Radhika Lahiri
Ghosh Arghya UNSW The Political Economy of Infrastructure Investment
Fox Kevin UNSW Problems with (Dis)Aggregating Productivity, and Another Productivity Paradox
Madden Gary Curtin General Purpose Information Technology and The Digital Divide (presented by Russel Cooper)
Oxley Les Canterbury How much human capital does New Zealand have?
 
A.W. Phillips Lecture:
Larry Christiano (Tuesday 9 July 10.15am - 11.30am)
 
Presidential Address:
Income Maintenance and Labor Force Participation
Guy Laroque (Tuesday 9 July 11.45am - 1.00pm)
 
Parallel Session 4 (Tuesday 9 July 2.30pm - 4.00pm)
Compensation --- Parallel Session 4 (Tuesday 9 July 2.30pm - 4.00pm)
Room B450 - Chair: Brett Inder
Magnani Elisabetta UNSW Technological Diffusion and Market-Mediated Employment Arrangements. Explaining the Growth of Outsourcing in US Manufacturing.
Fry Tim Melbourne Modelling Return to Work Durations and Compensation Costs in Victoria
Harris Mark Melbourne Risk Preference and Employment Contract Type
Lovell Knox Georgia The Managers versus the Consultants
Econometric theory 4 --- Parallel Session 4 (Tuesday 9 July 2.30pm - 4.00pm)
Room B117 - Chair: Farshid Vahid
McAleer Michael UWA Maximum Likelihood Estimation of STAR and STAR-GARCH Models: Theory and Monte Carlo Evidence 
Podivinsky Jan Southampton Model Selection and Volatility Forecasting with GARCH Processes
Skeels Christopher Melbourne Assessing Instrumental Variable Relevance
Yogo Motohiro Harvard Estimating the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution when Instruments are Weak
Financial econometrics 2 --- Parallel Session 4 (Tuesday 9 July 2.30pm - 4.00pm)
Room B119 - Chair: Stan Hurn
Gunn Lucy Monash Do Trade Announcements Affect Trade Durations ?
Martin Gael Monash Parametric Pricing of Higher Order Moments in S&P500 Options
Martin Vance Melbourne Pricing Options in Tranquil Markets: Modelling Volatility Frowns
Sriananthakumar Sivagowry Monash Estimating value at risk for short and long trading positions
Industrial economics 2 --- Parallel Session 4 (Tuesday 9 July 2.30pm - 4.00pm)
Room B121 - Chair: Joshua Gans
Blouin Max UQAM On the Pricing of Replacement Parts
Carlaw Kenneth Canterbury Optimal Obsolescence Driven by Technological Change
de Fontenay Catherine Melbourne The source of specificity
Olive Michael Macquarie Markup, Returns to Scale, the Business Cycle and Openness
Nonlinear time series methods (Invited Session) --- Parallel Session 4 (Tuesday 9 July 2.30pm - 4.00pm)
Room B122 - Chair: Walter Enders / Pierre Siklos
Enders
Siklos
Walt
Pierre
Alabama
WLU
SETAR versus Continuous TAR Models
Kofman Paul Melbourne Censor, Truncate, Fold or Non-Linear?
Citu Florin RBNZ Asymmetric Interest Rate Responses
Haug Alfred York A Closer Look at Long Run Money Demand
Topics in macroeconometrics (Invited Session) --- Parallel Session 4 (Tuesday 9 July 2.30pm - 4.00pm)
Room B124 - Chair: Olan Henry
Bodman Phil UQ Dynamic Asymmetries in the Australian Labour Market
Olekalns Nilss Melbourne The Effects of Uncertainty on Macroeconomic Performance: The importance of the conditional covariance model
Shields Kalvinder Melbourne Growth Dynamics: Measuring Steady-State Growth and the Output Gap using Direct Measures of Expectations
Lee Kevin Leicester A Long-run Structural Macroeconometric Model of the UK
Trade and growth 2 --- Parallel Session 4 (Tuesday 9 July 2.30pm - 4.00pm)
Room B440 - Chair: Les Oxley
Harvey Andrew  Cambridge Models for converging economies
Jin Jim The Queen's University of Belfast Free Trade vs Autarky, Cournot against Ricardo
Olsen Trond NHH Multinationals and international tax competition
Sun Chia-Hung Australian National University Have Singapore’s Manufacturing Industries Been More Pro-ductive? Evidence from Stochastic Coefficients Analysis
 

Colin Clark Lecture:
Using and Abusing Economic Theory
Paul Klemperer (Tuesday 9 July 4.15pm - 5.30pm)
sponsored by the Office of Economic and Statistical Research - Queensland Treasury

 
Conference Dinner
Tuesday 9 July 7.00pm for 7.30pm
The Rugby Club Downtown
Level One, Eagle Street Pier, 1 Eagle Street, Brisbane

 
Invited Lecture in Computational Economics:
Computation: can it be trusted?
Kenneth Judd (Wednesday 10 July 9am - 10.30am)
 
Parallel Session 5 (Wednesday 10 July 11am - 12.30pm)
Bayesian time series analysis (Invited Session) --- Parallel Session 5 (Wednesday 10 July 11am - 12.30pm)
Room B119 - Chair: Gael Martin
Kleijn Richard Rotterdam Rationalizing the unit root in real exchange rates
Tremanyne Andy Newcastle upon Tyne Bayesian graphical inference for unit root and other models for economic time series
Strachan Rodney Liverpool The Value of Structural Information in the Error Correction Model
Forbes Catherine Monash  Bayesian Estimation of a Stochastic Volatility Model Using Option and Spot Prices
Asian financial markets (Invited Session) --- Parallel Session 5 (Wednesday 10 July 11am - 12.30pm)
Room B450 - Chair: Michael Drew
Stanford Jon UQ The Role of Financial Markets in the Asian Financial Crisis
Veeraraghavan Madhu Griffith  Idiosyncratic Volatility and Security Returns
Hovey Martin Griffith  Role of Security Markets in Enhancing Corporate Governance in Asia
Guest  Ross Griffith  Demographic Transition, Optimal Saving and Living Standards in Five Asian Countries.
Business Cycles --- Parallel Session 5 (Wednesday 10 July 11am - 12.30pm)
Room B4121 - Chair: Allan Layton
Buckle Bob NZ Treasury On growth and volatility regime switching models for New Zealand GDP data
Katsuura Masaki Meijo Robustized Business Cycle Indicators and Regime Switching Model
Ulusoy Veysel Bahcesehir, Turkey Cyclical behavior of investment, production and fiscal policy
Vahid Farshid Monash The Missing Link: Using the NBER Recession Indicator to Construct  Coincident and Leading Indices of Economic Activity
Econometric theory 5 --- Parallel Session 5 (Wednesday 10 July 11am - 12.30pm)
Room B117 - Chair: Bill Griffiths
Coelli Tim UNE On the econometric estimation of the distance function representation of a production technology
Kim Jae Monash Bootstrap Prediction Intervals for Difference and Trend Stationary Time Series
Ruiz Esther Universidad Carlos III Properties of the sample autocorrelations of nonlinear transformations in Long Memory Stochastic Volatility models
Su Jen-Je Massey  On the Size of Panel Unit Root Tests under Sub-panel Cointegration
Economic and financial modelling 2 --- Parallel Session 5 (Wednesday 10 July 11am - 12.30pm)
Room B440 - Chair: Shakila Aruman
Doiron Denise UNSW Childcare Costs and Labour Supply in Australian Families
Kingston Geoffrey UNSW Joint Implications of Consumption and Tax Smoothing
Wang Gao-Wen National Chengchi University Consumption, Income, and Asset Returns
Economic theory 3 --- Parallel Session 5 (Wednesday 10 July 11am - 12.30pm)
Room B122 - Chair: Ranjan Ray
McDonald Stuart UQ Risk, Uncertainty and Social Cohesion
Menezes Flavio ANU Corruption and Auctions
Ryan Matthew ANU Auctions with options for re-auction: The role of reserve prices and phantom bidding
Schworm Bill UNSW Measuring Risk
Financial crises --- Parallel Session 5 (Wednesday 10 July 11am - 12.30pm)
Room B124 - Chair: Renee Fry
Gai Prasanna ANU Debt Maturity Structure with Pre-emptive Creditors
Holanda Marcos Ceara - Brazil Contagion on Latin America Big Three
Ramcharan Rodney  IMF IMF Survelliance and Lending
Fry Renee QUT International SVAR factor modelling
 
Parallel Session 6 (Wednesday 10 July 2pm - 3.30pm)
Econometric theory 6 --- Parallel Session 6 (Wednesday 10 July 2pm - 3.30pm)
Room B117 - Chair: Tim Coelli
Begum Nelufa Monash A New Approach to Testing a Composite Null against a Composite Alternative
Griffiths William Melbourne A Gibbs' Sampler for A Truncated Multivariate Normal Distribution
Valenzuela Rebecca Monash A Gibbs Sampler for Estimating Sets of SURs with Cross-Set Restrictions on the Coefficients
Evolving structural change (Invited Session) --- Parallel Session 6 (Wednesday 10 July 2pm - 3.30pm)
Room B119 - Chair: Ron Bewley
Mccracken Michael Missouri-columbia Consistent testing for structural change at the ends of the sample
Summers Peter Melbourne Bayesian Evidence on the Structure of Unemployment
Bewley Ronald CBA Man or Machine: Who Forecasts Best
Yang Minxian UNSW A Hybrid Forecasting Approach for Piece-wise Stationary Time Series
Financial econometrics 3 --- Parallel Session 6 (Wednesday 10 July 2pm - 3.30pm)
Room B121 - Chair: Florin Citu
Becker  Ralf QUT  The impact of monetary policy in the UK on the relationship between the term structure of interest rates and future inflation
Chiarella Carl UTS A Maximum Likelihood Approach to Estimation of Heath-Jarrow-Morton Models
Gordon Michael RBNZ Deriving expectations of the Australian cash rate target from money market rates
Krippner Leo RBA The OLP model of the yield curve
Labour economics --- Parallel Session 6 (Wednesday 10 July 2pm - 3.30pm)
Room B122 - Chair: Mathew Ryan
Beard Rodney UQ Comparing Income Distributions between Societies that Reward Innovation and those that Reward Knowledge
Kalb Guyonne Melbourne Estimation of Wage Equations in Australia
Mawson Peter NZ Treasury Modelling Regional Labour Market Adjustment in New Zealand
Racionero Llorente Maria del Mar Deakin  Optimal redistribution programs when different workers are indistinguishable
Macroeconometrics 2 --- Parallel Session 6 (Wednesday 10 July 2pm - 3.30pm)
Room B124 - Chair: Vance Martin
Aruman Shakila QUT Exchange Market Pressure and the Degree of Intervention over the Australian Post-Float Period
Joiner Alex Monash Monetary Policy Effects in an Australian Bayesian VAR Model
Leu Chen-Yu (Shawn) Sydney Exchange Market Pressure in Australia
Wickremasinghe Guneratnebanda Monash Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Manufactured Import Prices
Nonparametric methods --- Parallel Session 6 (Wednesday 10 July 2pm - 3.30pm)
Room B450 - Chair: Vlad Pavlov
Fernandes Marcelo Getulio Vargas Foundation Testing for symmetry and conditional symmetry using asymmetric kernels
Smith Murray Sydney Specification of Sample Selection Models Using Copulas
Zinde-Walsh Victoria McGill Improving the Efficiency of the Maximum Score Estimator
Panel data --- Parallel Session 6 Wednesday 10 July 2.00pm - 3.30pm)
Room B440 - Chair: Paul Kofman
Bartels Robert Sydney Supply Restricted Telecommunications Markets
Rambaldi Alicia UQ Predicting Missing Observations in Unbalanced Panels.  A Kalman Filtering-Smoothing Approach
Sul Donggyu Auckland Dynamic Panel Estimation and Homogeneity Testing Under Cross Section Dependence
 
Invited Lecture on Financial Econometrics:
Efficient Tests of Stock Return Predictability
John Campbell (Wednesday 10 July 4pm - 5.30pm)
sponsored by The Economic Society of Australia - Queensland Branch


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